The Mixed Migration Review (MMR) 2025 lands at a time of profound geopolitical turbulence, arguing that the global migration and asylum system is at a critical turning point. After the so-called “year of elections” in 2024, the world is grappling with escalating conflicts. It is also facing economic crises. There is a radical shift in political discourse. This shift is rapidly redefining what is considered “acceptable” migration policy.

The Normalisation of the Extreme

The most alarming trend identified in the Review is the “normalisation of the extreme,” where formerly controversial and fringe anti-migration practices have become mainstream. Actions like offshore asylum processing, pushbacks, prolonged detention, and summary expulsions no longer make headlines. Their occurrence has become standard across many states.

This process has been dramatically accelerated by the return of a hardline migration agenda in the United States. President Trump’s unprecedented clampdown on irregular migration is not only threatening the US-Mexico border system, leading to historically low encounter totals in 2025, but also emboldening governments worldwide to implement harsher measures.

At a global level, the US has initiated a consultation process to reform the 1951 Refugee Convention, intensifying long-simmering debates about the future of international asylum norms. This paradigm shift poses a risk. It makes the erosion of rights appear inevitable. Some commentators warn that attacking migrants’ rights is becoming “trendy” as a political strategy.

The Double Crisis: Aid Cuts and Economic Paradox

Geopolitical instability has triggered a dual crisis impacting human mobility. On one hand, the humanitarian sector is reeling from sudden and massive foreign aid cuts by the US and nearly all traditional donors, many of whom are redirecting funds to military spending. This erosion of multilateralism and development aid is fragmenting global migration governance, which will inevitably increase displacement in some areas and constrain movement in others.

On the other hand, a paradoxical tension exists. Despiten rising anti-migration sentiment, many destination countries have a strong need and demand for migrant labour. Politicians are struggling to balance their economic policies with the perceived political necessity of harsh anti-migration measures, a tension already leading to clashes within hardline administrations.

Regional Flashpoints and Real Resistance

The drivers of mixed migration—conflict, climate shocks, and economic crises—are persistent and intensifying across regions. The Review details significant movements tied to protracted conflicts in the DR Congo, instability in Myanmar, and economic crises from Venezuela to Lebanon. It also highlights the surge in deportations of Afghans from Iran, where returnees face dire conditions and human rights violations.

Yet, the Review stresses that this hardening trajectory is not set in stone. Evidence of resistance and alternative approaches is visible globally. Courts and judicial bodies have intervened to block unlawful government measures. For example, French courts have granted refugee status to Palestinians fleeing Gaza. Italian courts have obstructed aspects of the Italy-Albania offshore asylum deal.

Furthermore, while the EU shifts rightward, Spain stands out as an exception, pursuing a more divergent path with ambitious regularisation programmes. Critically, activists and communities are on the frontlines, with protests against immigration enforcement and local communities, such as Lampedusa, demonstrating powerful “gestures of hospitality.”

The MMR 2025 concludes by offering a sobering choice. We can continue the path towards the erosion of rights. Alternatively, we can leverage evidence, political leadership, and resistance to pull the window of acceptability back towards proportionality, legality, and protection for all people on the move.

The Robert Bosch Stiftung: Working for a Just and Sustainable Future

The Robert Bosch Stiftung is one of Europe’s largest company-affiliated foundations, committed to solving major social challenges in the spirit of its founder, Robert Bosch. Operating in the core areas of Health, Education, and Global Issues, the Foundation works to foster sustainable systemic change. It addresses contemporary crises like migration, inequality, and climate change, while supporting institutions like the Bosch Health Campus and promoting evidence-based policy.

For more information, visit the Robert Bosch Stiftung website.